Friday, October 26, 2012

HARMONIC PATTERN




Harmonic Trader Exploration for Amibroker performs identification of Harmonic Patterns. The description of the patterns below is taken from 


AB=CD
The AB=CD pattern is a price structure where each price leg is equivalent. The Fibonacci numbers in the pattern must occur at specific points. In an ideal AB=CD, the C point must retrace to either a 0.618 or 0.786. This retracement sets up the BC projection that should converge at the completion of the AB=CD and be either a 1.27 or 1.618. It is important to note that a .618 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.618 BC projection. A .786 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.27 projection. The most important consideration to remember is that the BC projection should converge closely with the completion of the AB=CD.



Butterfly
The structure of the Butterfly pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore. In my experience, I believe an Ideal Butterfly Pattern, which requires specific Fibonacci ratio to define the structure - including a mandatory 0.786 retracement of the XA leg as the B point - offers more precise Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ) and more significant trading opportunities.  Also, the Butterfly pattern must include an AB=CD pattern to be a valid signal. Frequently, the AB=CD pattern will possess an extended CD leg that is 1.27 or 1.618 of the AB leg. Although this is an important requirement for a valid trade signal, the most critical number in the pattern is the 1.27 XA leg.  The XA calculation is usually complemented by an extreme (2.00, 2.24, 2.618) BC projection. These numbers create a specific Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) that can yield powerful reversals, especially when the pattern is in all-time (new highs/new lows) price levels.


The Bat pattern is a precise harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. The pattern incorporates the 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg. The Bat utilizes a minimum 1.618BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat is extended and usually requires a 1.27AB=CD calculation. It is an incredibly accurate pattern and requires a smaller stop loss than most patterns.



Gartley
The Gartley pattern was outlined by H.M. Gartley in his book Profits in the Stock Market, published in 1935. Although the pattern is named "The Gartley," the book did not discuss specific Fibonacci retracements! It was not until "The Harmonic Trader" was released that the specific retracements of the B point at a .618 and the D point at a .786 were assigned to the pattern. There are others who have assigned Fibonacci retracements to this framework. However, they use a variety of Fibonacci numbers at the B and D points. Despite these variations, the Fibonacci retracements that yield the most reliable reversals are the .618 at the B point and the .786 at the D point. Furthermore, the pattern should possess a distinct AB=CD pattern that converges in the same area as the 0.786 XA retracement and the BC projection (either 1.27 or 1.618). The most critical aspect of the Gartley is the B point retracement, which must be at a 0.618 of the XA leg. Read more about the pattern at this link: The Great Gartley Controversy.



Crab
The Crab is a Harmonic pattern discovered byScott Carney in 2000. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the Harmonic patterns. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually provides an almost exact reversal in the Potential Reversal Zone.

 

Three Drives
Although it was not specifically identified, one of the first references to a Three Drives pattern was outlined in Robert Prechter's book, "Elliot Wave Principle." He described the general nature of price action that possessed either a three-wave or a five-wave structure. Adapted from this principle, symmetrical price movements that possess identical Fibonacci projections in a 5- wave price structure constitute a Three Drives pattern.  In "The Harmonic Trader," the patterns importance of other larger retracements and projections improved the accuracy of the pattern in real trading situations.  The book was one of the first to emphasize the the critical aspect of this pattern that each drive complete precisely at consecutive harmonic ratios - either a 1.13, 1.27 or a 1.618.   Also, the price legs should possess clear symmetry with each drive forming over equivalent time periods.



5-0
The 5-0 Pattern is a unique structure that possesses a precise alignment of Fibonacci ratios to validate the pattern.  Although the 5-0 is considered a retracement pattern, as the50% retracement is the most critical number within the Potential Reversal Zone, the measurements of the various price legs are slightly different than the Bat or the Gartley. The 5-0 is within the family of 5-point harmonic reversal structures and is primarily defined by the structure’s B point – as is mandatory for all harmonic patterns.  However, the 5-0 requires a reciprocal AB=CD measurement to define the pattern’s completion. The basic premise of the pattern is to identify distinct reactions following thecompletion of a contrary trend.  Valid 5-0 patterns typically represent the first pullback of a significant trend reversal.  In many instances, the AB leg of the structure is a failed final wave of an extended trend.   Within Elliott Wave terms, the AB leg may be a failed wave 3 of a corrective "abc" or a failed wave 5 of an entire completed trend.  Read more.....

 
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